000 AXNT20 KNHC 152346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N78W TO 20N77W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER NOTED ON IMAGERY FROM 10N16N BETWEEN 69W-83W. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS A 1009 MN LOW NEAR 10N81W. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...ENERGY IS ALSO SKIMMING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. REMAINING ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W- NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPTATION TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EVENTUALLY THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 76W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 09N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N18W TO 05N31W TO 06N43W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 23W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 32W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 88W WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 28N91W. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IS PROVIDING THE WESTERN GULF WITH STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING W OF 90W. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W IS FURTHER PROMOTING THE FAIR WEATHER. E OF 88W...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH PRIMARY AXIS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N73W TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N87W. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGHING AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF FROM 28N82W TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W- 91W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 83W-85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 78W. THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE IS EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N69W. A WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC E OF 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 68W TO A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS... NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ABC ISLANDS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT E-NE OVER THE ISLAND PRIMARILY ORIGINATING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE OF THE WAVE HAS PASSED TO THE WEST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N75W TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N87W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICS ALOFT TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RE- ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MORE USUAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N68W TO A BASE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N78W. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS N OF 30N...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO 29N70W THEN WESTWARD TO 28N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 29N69W TO 21N75W AND ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W. 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