000 AXNT20 KNHC 151806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W- NW NEAR 10 KT AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH INCREASE S OF 16N AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM NE OF THE AXIS N OF 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W WHERE A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16 AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 09N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W 06N47W TO 04N52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 23W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 31W-42W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 28N82W TO 28N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N89W TO 29N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 3O NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 88W-89W AND 83W-85W. LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NE TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE NE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY ON SUNDAY. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NE GULF LATE ON SUNDAY MAINTAINING RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N67W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HISPANIOLA... THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE ISLAND IS NOW WEST OF HAITI WITH AXIS CROSSING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTION FROM THIS WAVE OVER THE ISLAND HAS REDUCED AND SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONCENTRATE IN HAITI ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC BUT MOVING SEWD TOWARDS THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MAINE TO 23N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 30N69W TO 28N75W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 61W-72W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS REACHING THE ATLC WATERS N OF LA HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT WITHIN THAT PERIOD OR EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINING ATLC WATERS N OF 12N ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. FAIR WEATHER ALSO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A SAL OUTBREAK EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS