000 AXNT20 KNHC 150550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N69W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N28W 6N39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 27W-33W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 33W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF E OF 94W INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0300 UTC DRAPES ACROSS THE N GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 30N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N88W CONTINUING INLAND OVER LOUISIANA S OF NEW ORLEANS TO BEYOND 31N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA BY LATE SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SUN THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND REMAIN S OF 25N AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL GULF LATE MON AND TUE. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER HONDURAS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR S OVER THAT AREA. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM N NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N76W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N80W THEN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 13N73W 11N79W TO 13N83W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 69W. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE W ATLC SUN AND BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE AND WED. HISPANIOLA... THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT WILL RE-INTENSIFY THUNDERSTORMS SAT EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W MOVES E TOWARD THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 15/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N78W OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N65W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-75W AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE S OF THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1028 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 32N41W AND 33N30W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE E-SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON THROUGH WED. 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