000 AXNT20 KNHC 141744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N69W TO 09N70W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED MOISTURE UP TO 23N ON THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W TO S OF EL SALVADOR AT 10N90W MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N22W TO 06N30W TO 06N47W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 34W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AT 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO PANAMA CITY MOVING SW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 5-15 ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N102W WHERE DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 75W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS.... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... HAITI PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 24N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTERED IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W-74W. THREE OTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 30N56W...AT 30N40W...AND AT 22N34W. EACH UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THEIR CENTERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO THE N BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA