000 AXNT20 KNHC 141113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 62W/65W AT 14/0000 UTC HAS BEEN RELOCATED IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS TO THE WEST OF A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND THE MODEL INITIALIZATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.21 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N... MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IS ALONG COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...NOW IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W TO 4N26W AND 4N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 28W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W... AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N84W ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO 28N50W 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM GALVESTON TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SUGARLAND. THE VISIBILITY AT SUGARLAND IS ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. THE VISIBILITY AT ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 4 MILES AT BAY CITY. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE ROCKPORT TEXAS AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN FALFURRIAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL ALABAMA. RAIN ALSO IS REPORTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. VALPARAISO IN FLORIDA IS REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN APALACHICOLA...AND AT THE PUBLIC USE AIRPORTS IN FORT MYERS AND IN SAINT PETERSBURG IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO BE COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA... AND IN THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. HISPANIOLA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 62W/65W AT 14/0000 UTC HAS BEEN RELOCATED IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS TO THE WEST OF A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND THE MODEL INITIALIZATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.21 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN A RIDGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR MORE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST. THE SAME MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A RIDGE/AN AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS PASSING ON TOP OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVENTUALLY REACHES HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE 250 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N40W TO 20N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO 28N50W 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT