000 AXNT20 KNHC 131749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO 09N62W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED MOISTURE UP TO 20N ON THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N83W TO 06N84W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 05N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 95W S OF 29N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF W CUBA NEAR 24N84W WHERE DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N106W WHERE DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER GEORGIA TO DIP OVER N FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT S. MOREOVER EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO FORM OVER CENTRAL CUBA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES E TO THE N BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 73W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA. FOUR OTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 28N61W...AT 24N46W...AT 31N37W...AND AT 25N23W. EACH UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THEIR CENTERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W TO HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA