000 AXNT20 KNHC 131122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN TRADEWIND FLOW. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS PANAMA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 6N22W 5N34W 3N45W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N99W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N71W 27N78W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N82W...AND 24N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE COAST OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N33W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N43W...TO 28N57W 25N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN ALICE TEXAS AND IN BEAUMONT. THE VISIBILITY OF PANAMA CITY BEACH FLORIDA IS ONE MILE OR LOWER WITH FOG. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SARASOTA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE ICAO STATIONS KMDJ AND KEIR ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 29N66W TO 25N65W TO 22N64W...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N83W OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 10N84W IN COSTA RICA BEYOND 9N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 29N66W TO 25N65W TO 22N64W...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N83W OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF A RIDGE THAT RUNS ROUGHLY FROM EAST TO WEST. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N12W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N30W TO 30N39W AND 28N47W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N47W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N50W AND 15N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO... TO 30N33W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N43W...TO 28N57W 25N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W... TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N35W 22N45W 19N62W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST INDICATES SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 31N72W 30N75W 29N81W COLD FRONT... TO THE NORTH OF 29.5N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT