000 AXNT20 KNHC 121114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS PANAMA TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N79W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N81W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU...NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W AND 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 9N23W...TO 7N30W 5N40W AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE 4N2W 4N6W 4N10W 6N16W 9N19W 11N20W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO FROM 22N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO AND COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 102W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N81W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W 27N86W BEYOND 31N96W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W/94W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 22N IN CUBA TO 28N IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO 26N92W... TO 22N98W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING IN PORT LAVACA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS OF ALICE AND FALFURRIAS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. LIGHT RAIN AND FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THE VISIBILITY IS 3 MILES OR LOWER WITH FOG IN PERRY FLORIDA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KMDJ AND KDLP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 24N77W 29N76W BEYOND 32N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 73W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC... IS 0.29 INCHES IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N82W BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE 79W/80W TROPICAL WAVE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 24N77W 29N76W BEYOND 32N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL AND THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOW THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF A RIDGE. A 250 MB TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE TIME PERIOD. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM A 32N3W MOROCCO/ALGERIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO A 27N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO... TO 30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 30N55W 27N72W...TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 18N35W TO 21N45W TO 16N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT