000 AXNT20 KNHC 102345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 5N38W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N66W TO 2N66W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT RESIDES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 63W-67W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N79W TO 18N78W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS THROUGHOUT CUBA...BUT IS LIKELY A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. NO OTHER DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W 6N40W 3N51W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 29W- 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WEST ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N103W PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W...AND FROM 21N- 25N BETWEEN 93W-96W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MAINLY SOUTHEAST FLOW IS THROUGHOUT THE AREA RANGING FROM 10 KT IN THE EASTERN GULF TO 15 KT IN THE NW GULF. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 75W. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 75W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 61W-72W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 66W SOUTH OF 12N. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS PRESENT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 75W...WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE NW BAHAMAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 25N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY ONE LARGE AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N47W. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW UPPER LOWS ARE PRESENT. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS NEAR 24N73W WITH AXIS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND. THE SECOND UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N52W...AND IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 46W-53W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON