000 AXNT20 KNHC 101802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 7N35W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA ON ENHANCED MOISTURE UP TO 16N ON THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N64W TO 02N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N- 14N BETWEEN 63W-67W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N68W TO E JAMAICA AT 18N76W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 11N13W TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N19W TO 05N30W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL AT 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W...FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 19W-30W...AND FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 48W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH E/W AXIS N OF 30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 92W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS AT 28N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM JAMAICA. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N E OF 72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT ADDITION CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOREOVER EXPECT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE. HISPANIOLA... HAITI PRESENTLY HAS FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NO CHANGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE HAITI ADVECTS SOME SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 40W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA