000 AXNT20 KNHC 100605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N29W 8N30W 5N31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N59W...INTO NORTHWESTERN GUYANA...AND NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N70W TO 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A WINDWARD PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N16W AND 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 4N30W 5N41W AND 3N52W IN NORTH- EASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N96W ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS REPORTED IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 29N91W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 32N70W 29N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N92W...AND TO 20N96W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AT CORPUS CHRISTI AND ALICE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE IN BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KDLP OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...KEIR...AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N70W TO 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A WINDWARD PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTH- WESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N... TO 9N80W IN COASTAL PANAMA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO...IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA AND NEAR THE BORDER WITH PANAMA... SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N77.5W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N79W TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...AND FROM COSTA RICA INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...THE HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 14N75W...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N70W TO 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A WINDWARD PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR AT 500 MB. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM A 30N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N30W...TO A 28N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 24N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N FROM 18N...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 46W...TO BERMUDA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM BERMUDA TO 32N70W AND 29N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N92W... AND TO 20N96W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 72W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT