000 AXNT20 KNHC 091059 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N21W TO 06N22W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 12N. HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED YET. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE REMAINS ENGULFED BY DRY AIR N OF 12N WHICH MAY BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N54W TO INLAND OVER SURINAME AND THEN NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 0S56W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE NORTHERN WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE WHERE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 51W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N66W TO 15N67W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND LA HISPANIOLA. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND TO PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 08N24W TO 04N40W 06N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS AN EXTENSION OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS WITHIN 70 NM SOUTH OF THE COASTLINES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL N-NWLY FLOW WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE TO THE NW GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N W OF 95W. REMNANT CONVECTION FROM A SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N EAST OF 93W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE GULF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. WITHIN 48 HOURS RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS NE OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN....EASTERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AN UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS FROM NE OF HAITI SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN W OF A LINE FROM 18N71W TO 10N79W WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EAST OF THAT LINE WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N66W TO 15N67W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND LA HISPANIOLA. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND TO PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA MOSTLY ASSOCIATED TO THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. WITHIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN HAITI AND RAINSHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS CARRYING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND EXIT HAITI EARLY ON MONDAY. AS THIS WAVE COUPLES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW OVER THE ISLAND...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE W ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N W OF 78W ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST E OF THIS TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W-NW IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 34N47W. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N66W TO 15N67W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND LA HISPANIOLA. OTHER THAN THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 59W-70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS