000 AXNT20 KNHC 090604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO 07N19W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 12N AND A MUCH DRIER ENVIRONMENT N OF 12N. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N51W TO INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND THEN NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DEEP MOISTURE NE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 5N COINCIDING WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 50W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF 6N COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG FROM 23N65W TO 15N66W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST N OF THE WAVE AXIS...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 80 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF PUERTO RICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N22W TO 04N38W 06N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND 200 NM S OF IT BETWEEN 25W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS AN EXTENSION OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 35N81W WHICH TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH ALSO EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTLINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL N-NWLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE TO THE NW GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 95W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 23N89W TO 16N91W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW HAS BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AN UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS FROM N OF LA HISPANIOLA SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN W OF A LINE FROM 17N72W TO 11N80W WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM 17N72W TO 11N80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N66W TO 15N66W. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10- 20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. WITHIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS THE WAVE WILL COME OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LA HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAINSHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT ARE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO LA HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW OVER THE ISLAND WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND WILL COUPLE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE W ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 77W ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST E OF THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NORTHERN E ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N32W TO 28N33W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W-NW IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 64W-68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS