000 AXNT20 KNHC 071800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 79.5W AT 07/1500 UTC ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA... OR ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME OUTER RAINBANDS OF ANDREA ARE OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF VIRGINIA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR ANDREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NE. ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 12N53W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 49W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 1N40W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN ITS VICINITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N18W TO 3N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 8W-18W...AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 21W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TRAILING CONVERGENGE ZONE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND S FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE OF THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 19N88W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER W CUBA AND N FLOW OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS AGAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TRAILING CONVERGENGE ZONE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 33N29W TO 28N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC...AND NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA