000 AXNT20 KNHC 061208 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR 27.7N 85.1W. THE POSITION IS ABOUT 140 NM TO THE WEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ANDREA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...AND FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W 5N26W AND 1N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA IS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY T.S. ANDREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND AT PORT LAVACA IN TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KDLP OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...AND KGVX AND KMZG OFF THE TEXAS COAST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 0 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER ARE WITHIN 120 NM IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE...WITHIN 0 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 86W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N79W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN COASTAL PANAMA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... INTO WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 6N IN COLOMBIA TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W IN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL OF SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM THE GULF OF URABA TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AND FROM 11.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N79W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...TRENDING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS THAT NORTH- EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE WEST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N42W...THROUGH 32N53W...TO 26N64W AND 23N71W... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N22W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE TO THE NORTH OF 12N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT