000 AXNT20 KNHC 052352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 86.5W AT 06/0000 UTC OR 260 NM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND 265 NM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 79W-88W. ANDREA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY...CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 16N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 38W-44W. THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 39W- 46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 06N29W TO 05N37W TO 09N43W TO 05N52. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 08W... AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 11W-20W...AND FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 20W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ANDREA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS STRETCHING FROM PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN N-NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF... FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA. ANDREA IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 90W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED EAST OF THIS TROUGHING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN GULF. ANDREA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE U.S THROUGH FRIDAY. REMNANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS ANDREA EXITS THE BASIN...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N88W TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. W OF 80W...THIS RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-89W...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA CONTINUES TO PRESENT A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. OTHERWISE...ELSEWHERE MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS E-SE TRADES PERSIST. THE STRONGEST AREA OF TRADES IS GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 66W-76W AS NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. FINALLY...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES ARE UNDER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW. ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL STABLE OVERNIGHT ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AHEAD...E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND INITIATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 62W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 74W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...E-SE WINDS REMAIN DOMINATE AS TROPICAL STORM ANDREA CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS N-NE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHES AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N58W IS PROVIDING LIFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 52W-58W ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORING THE RIDGE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N43W AND REMAINS AT 1028 MB. OTHERWISE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N26W TO 28N33W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N26W TO 26N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN