000 AXNT20 KNHC 051752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N89W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 20N91W. THE LOW CENTER IS NOT WELL- DEFINED AT THIS TIME AND COULD BE REFORMING FARTHER TO THE EAST. CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF THE SYSTEM AS DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE REPORTED SERIOUS FLOODING. THIS FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N39W TO 7N42W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-43W...AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 38W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N69W TO 15N73W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS JUST WEST OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN THE WAVES. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS IT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP MOISTURE AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 8N37W. IT PICKS BACK UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7N45W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 12W-18W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED CENTER AT THIS TIME AND THE LOW PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 25N89W APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS A NEW LOW FORMS FARTHER EAST. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE LOW CENTER IS...STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EASTERN GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 82W-87W. OVER FLORIDA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-27N ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE ALREADY COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA. IF THE AREA OF STRONG ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST OVER FLORIDA FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR. WEST OF 89W...WEST OF THE SYSTEM...DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 90W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIKELY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RACING TOWARDS THE NE. MOIST AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN GULF DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND INTO THE SE GULF AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY...A LARGE BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-87W. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN CONTINUOUS FOR 4 DAYS NOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN COMPARISON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-83W ACROSS PANAMA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W. THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DUST WEST OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KT IS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. HISPANIOLA... DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ISLAND...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS. A DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS IS TO THE EAST...WHICH IS LIKELY INHIBITING MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT MAY BE LESS THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE DUST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 36N44W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FILTERING OVER INTO THE FAR WEST ATLC SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE EAST EXTENDING FROM 24N59W TO 18N63W CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 36N59W TO 28N45W. NEITHER UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING MUCH ACTIVE WEATHER AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG 40W SUPPORTS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE EAST SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N28W TO 27N34W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH A SECOND AREA WEST OF THE WAVE CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON