000 AXNT20 KNHC 051200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...ALONG 90W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N89W...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W AND 99W...AND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 31N BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 15N83W 19N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 5N TO 12N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 8N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 46W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 12N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 74W...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA... CUBA...AND HAITI. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 57W AND 69W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W 4N26W AND 6N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN EDINBURG AND ANGLETON/ LAKE JACKSON. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE WITH FOG ARE IN HARLINGEN...2 MILES OR LESS IN ALICE...AND 1 MILE OR LESS AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. PORT LAVACA REPORTED A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS DURING THE LAST HOUR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ALONG THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...INLAND FROM THE COAST. MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR DESTIN AND VALPARAISO...AND TO CRESTVIEW AND MARIANNA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM PERRY TO BROOKSVILLE. HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN ARE OBSERVED FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION IS OBSERVING A LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KGVX THAT IS OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND KDLP THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 29N89W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N89W...TO 19N89W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 86W. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL HONDURAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ARE 1.35 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...THROUGH COSTA RICA...INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA... AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE GULF OF URABA...ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 8OW. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 7N TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA TO 10N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 12N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 74W...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA... CUBA...AND HAITI. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 57W AND 69W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN IN A RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA WILL RECEIVE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT 250 MB...BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE WEST. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W... AND 18N28W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 31N28W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W 28N30W 26N35W 27N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 27N68W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W... AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT REACHES 31N28W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE 43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 12N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT