000 AXNT20 KNHC 042352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO ANALYZED FROM 29N89W TO 24N89W TO 19N89W. THE AREA FOCUSED AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE...BUT NO CLEAR DEFINED LOW CENTER HAS FORMED AT THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 79W-88W...INCLUDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N41W TO 14N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 36W-43W. THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 37W- 44W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N67W TO 19N66W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N- 23N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE WAVE IS ALSO LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N62W TO 15N68W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 62W-67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N18W TO 04N33W TO 07N39W TO 05N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 29W-34W...AND FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N92W TO A BASE NEAR 22N88W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE GULF W OF 90W... IS UNDER DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...HOWEVER E OF 90W THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A CURVED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED AT 04/2100 UTC FROM 29N89W TO 25N89W TO 19N89W. THIS AREA OF VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF PLAINS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF 88W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BROAD IN NATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION BY LATE THURSDAY WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS REMAINING STRONG E-SE WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN LOW CENTER AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN WHICH TO GENERATE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG 90W AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING PRIMARILY N OF 15N W OF 81W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUING CONVECTION FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. BETWEEN 68W-80W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE AND TRANQUIL THIS EVENING CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING. HOWEVER...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILITY INITIATED CONVECTION OVER LAND. WITH THE DOMINATE FLOW NORTHERLY ALOFT MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 25N62W TO A BASE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N69W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-67W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. LOWER LATITUDE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 62W-69W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL STABLE OVERNIGHT ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AHEAD...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 67W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W WITH AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. FARTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 31N56W TO 18N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N56W TO 18N66W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W. FINALLY...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN