000 AXNT20 KNHC 040003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N31W 7N36W MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS TILTED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE CONTINUES ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR. THE METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW BROWN HAZE OVER ITS AXIS N OF 12N INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF SAL DUST. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N- 12N BETWEEN 32W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 11N62W MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 13N. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CAN EXTEND EASTWARD TO 57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N19W 7N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N22W AND CONTINUES TO 10 N30W. IT RESUMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N40W TO 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W- 20W. A BURST OF NUMEROUS TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 8N-11N E OF 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 14W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 86W. OVER THAT PORTION OF THE GULF DRY AIR SINKING FROM ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N86W 23N90W TO 17N91W. DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE W AND S CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF...JUST E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 5-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS W OF 80W OVER THE W AND S CARIBBEAN COLOCATED WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 79W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE NICARAGUA COAST MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE COASTS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE W OF 72W AND THE TROUGH NE OF THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES AS A TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ASSISTS IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT AND ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER LA HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDESPREAD DUST HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE W OF 72W AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING AT AROUND 5-10 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE W ATLC...MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS W OF 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF 27N BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE W AND S CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 19N IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS