000 AXNT20 KNHC 031746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N32W 5N37W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH ALSO HAS A NE TO SW TILT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 9N61W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS JUST WEST OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AND CONTINUES TO ABOUT 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 59W-62W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 58W-63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N21W AND CONTINUES TO 8N30W. IT PICKS UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N40W 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM NEAR 27N87W TO 19N92W...AS OF 1500 UTC. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 88W. AS THIS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH....PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COULD RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FAIRLY DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SINKING INTO THIS AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA TO NEAR 25N91W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT REGION OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 17N98W. LIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXCEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE SE FLOW OF 15 KT IS PRESENT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND INTO THE SE GULF. CURRENTLY...A LARGE BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN COMPARISON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ALONG 61W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA IS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING AT AROUND 15 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DESPITE BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W...HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL PRESENT. SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 70W-74W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 41W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ALONG 32N21W TO 23N38W SUPPORTING THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N37W TO 30N40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 37N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 18N4W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC AND CONTINUING TO NEAR 58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON