000 AXNT20 KNHC 031234 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N33W 9N34W 6N35W. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR. THE METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING A BROWN HAZE OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THIS WAVE...WHICH INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SAL DUST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 8N59W ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT THIS WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N24W. THE ITCZ IS DISJOINTED...AND RUNS FROM 4N34W TO 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N27W 6N38W 5N45W 9N56W 12N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO MEXICO NEAR 26N102W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS TEXAS TO THE EAST OF 99W...AND THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N91W...TO 18N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO FORM BY 24 HOURS... AND BE NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG 100W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. REMNANT RAINSHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N79W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. PORT ISABEL TEXAS IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING NEAR 7500 FEET. PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG. VARIABLE LOW CLOUD AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO PERRY FLORIDA. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST IS REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING. MARATHON KEY IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING WITH RAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 4900 FEET TO 7500 FEET FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS KCRH...KECH... KGUL...KEIR...KMYT...KSPR...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 24N88W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR THE BORDER WITH PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W... ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTERN NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST TO TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 36N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 28N69W 24N72W. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES HISPANIOLA...BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE RECEIVING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST...AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N31W 19N39W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N54W...TO 30N79W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17.5N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG 39W/40W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT