000 AXNT20 KNHC 021045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 15N26W TO 4N29W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 5N- 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N47W TO 10N52.W ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W CONTINUING 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N28W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N31W TO 4N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 11W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF S OF 26N E OF 95W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FAR SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. AN ILL-DEFINED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 02/0900 UTC NEAR 19N94W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 90W AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TUE ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N93W MON THEN DRIFT N AND INLAND TUE AND WED. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THEN WILL DRIFT N-NE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF 78W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING E TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE WED. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 68W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 67W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N49W. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TUE. A WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF BAHAMAS TODAY AND MON THEN DRIFT W THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW