000
AXNT20 KNHC 020531
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 13N24W TO 5N26W 
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 5N-
14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE 
OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 7N29W TO 6N31W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N39W TO 7N48W THEN RESUMES W OF THE 
WAVE NEAR 7N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N 
BETWEEN 34W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N 
OF 2N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W TO THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 92W 
WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH 
IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT TO 
ENTER THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC 
OVER THE FAR SE CONUS AND IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT EASTWARD BUT 
STILL GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. AN ILL-DEFINED 1008 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 02/0300 UTC NEAR 19N94W 
WITH THE TYPICAL LATE EVENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE 
W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. N OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING 
DRAWN ACROSS THE SE GULF BY THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SURFACE 
FEATURES COUPLED WITH DIFFLUNCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER 
RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S 
OF 24N E OF 90W AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A SECOND SURFACE 
TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO 27N83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WITH 
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH WED. 
SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT IN N-NE SUN AND MON. WEAK COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW GULF SUN AND REACH FROM BIG BEND 
FLORIDA TO 28N94W THEN DRIFT N BACK INLAND TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 
77W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ATLC SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE BASIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY E-SE ON TUE. A 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON THEN WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES W ACROSS CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...                                                
EVENING SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS 
ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT NOT THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SEEN OVER 
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 
27N W OF 68W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 67W. THE 
UPPER LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W ATLC NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NE 
OF BERMUDA. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING 
SLOWLY EASTWARD TUE. WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF 
BAHAMAS SUN AND MON AND DRIFT IN W THROUGH TUE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW