000 AXNT20 KNHC 291045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 03N30W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 06W-11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 20W-25W... AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N33W TO 06N51W TO 08N55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE FAR SE GULF...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SW NORTH ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA KEYS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N73W TO 28N95W. E- SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 66W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 10N. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 71W-78W. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF 66W WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AREAS EAST TO 50W. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTLY FLOW DOMINATES AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE A REGION WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS OVER A SINGLE LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N61W. ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING HOWEVER...MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 32N BETWEEN 70W-81W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. BRIDGING THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W TO 31N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DOMINATES A LARGE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AROUND 40N29W. LASTLY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SNAKES ACROSS THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO TO 31N11W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN