000 AXNT20 KNHC 290552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO 05N40W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 12W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 49W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19N92W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE SE GULF...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SW NORTH ATLC...AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA KEYS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N74W TO 25N97W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FAR NW GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N AND W OF 80W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 11N/12N. CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF 70W WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY CONCENTRATED E OF 65W. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTLY FLOW DOMINATES AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE A REGION WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE... PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS OVER A SINGLE LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N65W. ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING HOWEVER...MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W. BRIDGING THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W TO 30N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DOMINATES A LARGE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N33W. LASTLY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SNAKES ACROSS THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO ALONG 31N TO 22W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN