000 AXNT20 KNHC 282352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 13N19W 7N22W TO 6N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W3N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 13W-28W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 1N E OF 58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER N GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE W OF THE THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM TAMPA TO MIAMI ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N E OF 83W TO OVER FLORIDA AND S OF 24N E OF 87W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER CUBA. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS GIVING THE GULF SE TO S SURFACE FLOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTING THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-93W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E GULF AND DRIFT INTO FLORIDA WED. WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA AND N OF 21N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-81W. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-70W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI. HISPANIOLA IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED WITH LESS RAIN ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO NEAR 31N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 32N58W TO 29N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA WITH A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE AZORES. W ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH WED. A TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA WED THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW