000 AXNT20 KNHC 271811 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE HISPANIOLA SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W AND 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N24W AND 2N33W AND 2N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N IN SIERRA LEONE TO 11N IN GUINEA...BETWEEN 11W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W... FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 87W/88W... FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 26N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N97W...TO 17N99W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 21N93W 16N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY- DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION ALSO COVER THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 28N88W 25N94W...TO 21N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. 32N81W NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A 1026 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N87W...TO 28N94W... TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 25N98W...TO 19N97W IN MEXICO NOT FAR FROM THE COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...ABOUT 4000 FEET OR SO...COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...NEAR 5000 FEET OR SO...ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES FLORIDA. CLOUD CEILINGS OF 6500 FEET IN SARASOTA AND 7000 FEET IN PUNTA GORDA ARE BEING REPORTED. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING AT MARATHON KEY IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KMZG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 87W/88W... FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N83W NEAR COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...TO 17N82W NEAR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...TO 21N87W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 13N72W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF 13N70W 16N67W 20N62W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/1200 UTC...ARE 2.07 FOR GUADELOUPE... 0.50 FOR TRINIDAD0...0.35 FOR SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N AT 27/1045 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N82W... AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... THE 700 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT NEUTRAL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED EITHER BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OR A RIDGE. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN A TROUGH OR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 27N65W. THIS TROUGH BECOMES CLOSE TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N60W TO 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 13N72W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N64W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 29N65W AND 26N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N TO 25N IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 72W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND 81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W 28N70W 29N65W BEYOND 32N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 27N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 18N60W 10N60W 10N51W 18N60W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT