000 AXNT20 KNHC 271043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 05N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N24W TO 02N33W TO 02N46W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 12W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SE TEXAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 98W TO A BASE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGHING GENERATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N W OF 89W. OTHERWISE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH ONLY A FEW EASTWARD MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF 25N84W...AND ACROSS AN AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W- 91W. THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND WITHIN E-SE SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N71W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH E-SE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR INDICATING AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 21N W OF 82W. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. EAST OF 70W... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO AID IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF A LINE FROM 20N60W TO THE CENTRALLY LOCATED ABC ISLAND OF CURACAO NEAR 12N69W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROVIDING MOISTURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SURROUNDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND THIS AGAIN WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO A BASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEST OF 60W THAT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER MOVING ON EASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 28N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N38W. THE ONLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SURROUNDING THIS RIDGE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 23N BETWEEN 47W-67W... DUE TO MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN