000 AXNT20 KNHC 262331 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W TO 5N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N26W TO 4N32W TO 5N47W TO BRAZIL AT 4N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 12W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INLAND OVER E TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS E OF 98W. FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 22N95W TO 17N95W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 81W-94W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER JAMAICA...E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND VENEZUELA E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W CUBA WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST. HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W. MOIST TRADEWINDS TOGETHER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MAKING PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 42N41W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N41W TO 24N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE S OF 30N. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA