000 AXNT20 KNHC 250005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG GUYANA AND BRAZIL FROM 08N59W TO 01N60W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF 700 MB WIND STREAMLINES ALSO DEPICTS THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-07N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NE GULF...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 28N82W TO 28N85W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MAY BE EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING INTO NE MEXICO IS GENERATING NUMEROUS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE GENERATING RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER GULF...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER THE NE GULF DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WHILE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THUS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...THE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH THAT IS ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THERE IS HIGH HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH PARTICULARLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. ENHANCEMENTS OF SATELLY IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURING OVER E CUBA...LA HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...WETERN PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED S OF 15N W OF 77W LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER COSTA RICA. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HISPANIOLA... THE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH THAT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCURRING OVER THE W AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS LA HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N EASTERN CONUS TO EASTERN CUBA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM 30N73W TO 26N76W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N78W TO 29N81W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS JUST SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W- 74W. OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N36W TO 25N37W TO 22N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR