000 AXNT20 KNHC 240547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 5N53W TO 1N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 8N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W CONTINUING TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W 6N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N27W TO 5N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N34W 6N40W TO 10N48W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 29W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS S FROM GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF E 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE GULF FRI AND MOVE E OF THE BASIN SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD SAT THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF THE S HAITIAN PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 70W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WEATHER SERVICE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECASTING LESS RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA OVER THE N BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 24/0300 UTC WAS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 79W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W ALONG 27N38W TO 24N43W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N42W 27N48W TO 30N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS FRI AND MOVE E THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN INTO OPEN TROUGH NEAR 65W ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW