000 AXNT20 KNHC 231047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N47W TO EQ49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 2N-6N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 42W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W AND THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROF E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE IVORY AND GRAIN COASTS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N15W TO 1N27W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIPS S FROM SE GEORGIA TO OVER NE FLORIDA GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W AND SE SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE GULF LATE FRI THEN E OF THE GULF SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N79W TO E PANAMA NEAR 8N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO AND FROM OVER JAMAICA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TONIGHT INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO PLATA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N79W OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N60W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N40W TO 27N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW