000 AXNT20 KNHC 230539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N45W TO EQ48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 44W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W/82W S OF 13N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LIBERIA AND GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W- 25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W AND SE SURFACE FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N W OF 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT NE GULF LATE FRI THEN DRIFT E THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-80W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 69W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH SUN. ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVIE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU NIGHT INCREASING WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND THU. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ISLAND. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... EVIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE FAR W ATLC AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMAS N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR N OF 25N W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N61W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N41W TO 25N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW