000 AXNT20 KNHC 221745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N44W TO 06N42W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ IN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 39W-47W. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N38W TO 01N46W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 13N78W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. AS OF 22/1200 UTC...THE WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED FARTHER WEST DUE TO FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY OF THE GFS 315K THETA FIELDS AND LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB TROUGH AXES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N22W TO 04N30W TO 04N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W...AND FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF W OF 85W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N93W TO ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-94W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA S-SE OVER THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 24N77W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 70W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME N OF 15N W OF 70W WITH E-SE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-83W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N NORTH OF PANAMA AND ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W IS ALSO INFLUENCING INCREASE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. EAST OF 72W...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATE AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE E- SE TRADE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS SE TO OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS MAXIMIZED OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST WHILE E-SE TRADE WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE. A WIDE SWATH OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOTED ON IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTHWEST TO BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE... THESE INGREDIENTS ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SW NORTH ATLC WATERS W OF 72W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W. FARTHER EAST...A CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LARGELY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 42W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 50N23W. NOTE...A GOES-E/GOES-13 ANOMALY OCCURRED LAST NIGHT PRIOR TO 0400 UTC AND HAS IMPACTED THE FULL SUITE OF IMAGERY AVAILABLE FROM THIS SATELLITE...AND IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SATELLITE INTERPRETATION ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 60W AND 100W. NESDIS ENGINEERS ARE WORKING ON RECOVERY EFFORTS AT THIS TIME. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC THU MAY 23. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN