000 AXNT20 KNHC 221045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N38W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 4N39.5W TO 2N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N36W TO 4N43W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N29W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 3N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 7W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 10N-12N E OF 17W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA...AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FAR W GULF LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM S OF 26N E OF 83W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE W ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE N OF THE ISLAND IS MOVING E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK W. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 74W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 30N W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A DYING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N41W TO BEYOND 32N39W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 24N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW