000 AXNT20 KNHC 200558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N60W 9N61W 5N61W...FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS...TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 8N15W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 4N22W AND 4N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1S36W TO 1S40W 2S45W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W AND 1S53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE WEST OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE IN ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN FLORIDA NEAR VALPARAISO... MARY ESTHER...AND DESTIN/FORT WALTON BEACH. THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE SARASOTA/ BRADENTON AIRPORT...AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...KGUL...KEIR... AND KSPR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N66W IN VENEZUELA...TO 9N74W IN COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N86W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... AND BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...FROM 7N TO 10N IN PANAMA AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN 81W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 83W...AND ALONG THE COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TO 18N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE EASTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO AND 77W BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/ A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AT 250 MB. A TROUGH IS PRESENT IN THE FORECAST AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N52W TO 32N52W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THAT AREA TO THE SOUTH IS NORTHWESTERLY- TO-WESTERLY. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N66W...CURVING TO 31N71W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 31N71W BEYOND 32N72W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 26N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N52W 23N60W 20N66W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N34W 15N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N47W 25N44W 23N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT