000 AXNT20 KNHC 191745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 12N58W TO 7N59W TO 4N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-58W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N17W TO 4N30W TO 0N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 28W-40W...AND FROM 2N- 6N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS N OF 30N PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF TO BE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 89W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS...AND OVER S FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS TO ADVECT FROM W CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO FORM OVER N FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-86W MOSTLY DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE THE S BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA ...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE STONGEST SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 71W. SURFACE TRADEWIND CONVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE LOW OVER THE S BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO 29N66W TO 32N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT IS FURTHER SE IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W SUPPORTING SHOWERS. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W. A 90 KT TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 15N45W TO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA COAST. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVE E AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA