000 AXNT20 KNHC 191126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N54W 9N56W 5N55W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N14W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO 4N27W AND 4N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W... FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 92W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO ALABAMA. PASCAGOULA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG. VISIBILITIES OF 1/8 OF A MILE WITH FOG AND 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN THE AREA PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND IN BROOKVILLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KCRH...KHQI...AND KMYT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N78W ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 5N TO 6N... FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N78W ABOUT 145 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N60W TO 23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W... TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N68W...BEYOND 32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N67W 29N73W AND 32N76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N37W 19N50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W 23N64W AND 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 34N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N62W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N70W...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT