000 AXNT20 KNHC 190603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 12N53W 9N55W 6N54W AT THE COAST OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO 4N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 20N IN MEXICO BEYOND THE BORDER OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N70W...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W 28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 91W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...AND IN MOBILE ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA...IN DESTIN/ FORT WALTON BEACH...PUNTA GORDA...FORT MYERS...AND IN NAPLES. TALLAHASSEE IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 17N78W TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N82W AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N76W...ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL PANAMA...TO 9N88W AND BEYOND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 4N TO 8N IN PANAMA...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N82W OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 17N78W TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N60W TO 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A TROUGH FROM 250 MB TO 500 MB AND TO 700 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW FORECAST IS MOSTLY EASTERLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 30N64W 26N65W AND TO 24N80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 32N67W 32N72W... CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N66W AND 28N74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N41W 18N51W AND 17N59W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W 23N65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 23N60W 20N63W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N70W...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W 28N92W 25N95W...AND TO 19N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N43W AND 10N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT