000 AXNT20 KNHC 180603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N51W 6N52W 2N53W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 2N33W TO 2N44W AND 1N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE IVORY COAST FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W... FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 8W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N98W IN MEXICO BEYOND 28N100W INTO TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N66W...CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...TO 21N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 87W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE STATIONS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET COVER THE REST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS COMPARATIVELY MORE TO THE WEST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE REST OF TEXAS...IN COASTAL LOUISIANA...IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF 86W. THE ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA AIRPORT IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...AND KHQI. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N80W AND 16N82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N79W... ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL PANAMA AND COASTAL COSTA RICA... TO 10N86W...BEYOND 9N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 3N. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA... MERGING WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE TRINIDAD-TO-16N82W RIDGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N52W TO 17N60W...TO 17N67W TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR 21N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A 250 MB TROUGH TO BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL ALSO GIVES THE FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT 500 MB AND 700 MB...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO AT 500 MB... DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT MORE TIME. THE GFS MODEL CUTS OUT THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM ITS FORECAST. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N45W 20N52W 17N60W... TO 17N67W TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR 21N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCLUDING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N60W 23N64W AND 21N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W TO 25N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 24N60W 20N67W... INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N66W...CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...TO 21N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO 23N18W AND 18N19W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 52W IS INTERRUPTED BY THE 31N50W 25N47W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT