000 AXNT20 KNHC 171153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS POSITION HAS BEEN COINCIDING WITH A GLOBAL-MODEL-INDICATED AREA OF MAXIMUM POTENTIAL VORTICITY AT 315K. TOTAL PRECIPITATABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 3N34W AND 4N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W...AND FROM LAND TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 12W 1W AND 11W...TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W... AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. MOISTURE THAT IS AT DIFFERENT LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY- TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W TO 29N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FOLLOWING FLORIDA STATIONS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG...THE NAVAL AIR STATION THAT IS NEAR MILTON FLORIDA... THE SIKES GENERAL AIRPORT IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA...PANAMA CITY BEACH...TALLAHASSEE...AND PERRY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KGVX...KVBS...KCRH...KHQI...AND KGUL. ICAO STATIONS KGBK AND KMYT ARE REPORTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N81W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF HONDURAS... INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 7N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 7N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W...AND IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 7N TO THE WEST OF 72W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N51W...TO 20N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA... INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W AROUND JAMAICA AND TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A 250 MB TROUGH TO BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL ALSO GIVES THE FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N51W...TO 20N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N58W AND 24N62W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N62W TO 22N67W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 21N73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N45W... TO A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W... CONTINUING TO 26N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 23N22W AND 16N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 54W IS INTERRUPTED BY A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N45W 29N45W 26N46W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 15N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT