000 AXNT20 KNHC 170558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS POSITION COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL- MODEL-INDICATED AREA OF MAXIMUM POTENTIAL VORTICITY AT 315K. TOTAL PRECIPITATABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 3N32W 4N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM LAND TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 11W...TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N68W TO 29N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 29N/30N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO 24N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED AT MCALLEN TEXAS IN THE LAST OBSERVATION. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WERE REPORTED AT BROWNSVILLE AND WESLACO. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS CONSISTS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...IN FORT MYERS AND NAPLES. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND FOG IS REPORTED IN PERRY FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KMZG...KVBS...KHQI...KCRH. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TO 12N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N81W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF HONDURAS... INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 6N81W...9N85W...AND BEYOND 9N89W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N51W...TO 21N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA... INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. THE GFS MODEL GIVES A FORECAST OF A 250 MB TROUGH TO BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL ALSO GIVES THE FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE AT 500 MB AND AT 700 MB DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN ORDER TO HELP TO GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N51W...TO 21N59W...TO 19N68W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 74W. THIS AREA INCLUDES HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N58W AND 24N62W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N62W TO 22N67W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 21N73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N48W... TO A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W... CONTINUING TO 27N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N68W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 30N68W TO 29N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 29N/30N...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO 24N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 22N23W AND 17N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 54W IS INTERRUPTED BY A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N48W 29N45W 27N43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 13N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT