000 AXNT20 KNHC 120548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N20W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 9W-14W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TAMPICO FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. WINDS W OF THE FRONT ARE NORTHERLY AT ONLY 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 17N91W MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S OF TAMPICO WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. FURTHER E ...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR NICARAGUA AT 13N84W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA ...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 76W-79W. FURTHER SE... A 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 23N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 22N64W TO THE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 61W-64W. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N31W TO 28N28W TO 25N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 23N64W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 34N22W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ FORMOSA