000 AXNT20 KNHC 111051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 7N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N24W TO 3N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 10W-23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 23W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 SW SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE W GULF WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ABOUT 50 NM FROM THE COAST MOVING SE. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA T0 BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. FURTHER E...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA MOVING E. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N83W TO 9N81W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. FURTHER E ... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE AT 18N68W TO THE W ATLANTIC AT 24N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF GUATEMALA TO PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN... AS WELL AS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 60W-68W. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N38W TO 26N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 24N66W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 32N34W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ FORMOSA