000 AXNT20 KNHC 100552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 5N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N23W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N- 7N BETWEEN 5W-23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N- 6N BETWEEN 25W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 SW SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE W GULF WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND N OF 30N FROM E TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 89W. FURTHER S ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION...AND CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N81W TO 9N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N FROM LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 26N74W TO E CUBA AT 20N75W MOVING WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N60W TO 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE SHEARLINE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 26N74W TO 20N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 65W-72W...WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N- 24N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SHEARLINE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N37W TO 14N55W TO TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20W-50W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ FORMOSA