000
AXNT20 KNHC 081100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 
12N16W TO 8N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 8N20W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-9N 
BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-2S BETWEEN 20W-33W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-0N BETWEEN 35W-50W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 0900 UTC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N87W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT 
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF PRODUCING SEAS OF 
ONLY 1-3 FT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF...AS WELL AS OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE 
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER 
W CUBA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HAITI AT 18N73W TO N COLOMBIA 
AT 10N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. 
FURTHER S...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 
7N73W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. 
THE W CARIBBEAN HAS 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. BEAUFORT ONE SEAS OF 
1-3 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OUVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM HAITI 
TO PANAMA DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           

AS OF 0900 UTC...A TRIPLE POINT IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH 
CAROLINA AT 35N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 35N71W TO 30N72W 
DISSIPATING TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N74W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS 
SE FROM 35N71W TO 30N67W DISSIPATING TO 27N65W. FURTHER S...A 
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 
23N69W TO 20N71W MOVING WNW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH. FURTHER E...A 
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N33W TO 24N40W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N23W TO 24N30W TO 19N40W DISSIPATING TO 
17N50W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLAND AT 19N60W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 
20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE 
SLOWLY E...WHILE THE E ATLANTIC FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH 
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF 
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND 
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY 
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL 
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES 
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT 
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE 
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS 
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
FORMOSA