000 AXNT20 KNHC 061800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 4N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO 1N30W TO 1N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 5N50W TO EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN 19W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2S-6N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF W OF 90W. A BROAD MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO N CUBA BETWEEN 75W-89W IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE W ATLC...ONE OF THEM CROSSING S FLORIDA AND ENTERING THE E GULF WATERS NEAR 26N81W TO 25N85W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT SINCE VERY DRY AIR SPREAD OVER THE BASIN N OF 21N AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY OF COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR. IN THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N90W TO 18N91W...THEN INLAND TO 16N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED FROM VERACRUZ TO CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS BANKING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BY 5-10 KT NE WINDS...FOG AND HAZE IS OBSERVED IN THIS AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTER GULF WHILE THE COLD FRONT IN THE E GULF MOVES TO THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT SPREAD OVER THE WEST...SOUTH AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. DRY AIR IS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 18N63W TO 15N67W TO 12N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 15N AND WITHIN 130NM E OF THE AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM S OF 10N BY SW MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TRADEWINDS WILL START TO BUILD BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE OVER THE W ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO N CUBA BETWEEN 75W- 89W. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N78W TO 27N80W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE E GULF. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N75W TO 26N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 24N76W TO 23N78W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT EITHER. HOWEVER...REMNANT CONVECTION FROM A PRIOR WARM FRONT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 63W- 74W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N30W TO 25N37W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT ALONG 22N45W TO 22N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS FOR THE MOST PART THE E ATLC N OF THE EQUATOR SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N15W. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS SW JUST TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ NR