000 AXNT20 KNHC 061051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 4N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO 0N26W TO 2N40W TO 2N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 5N45W TO 2S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W- 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 24W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-2S BETWEEN 37W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE NE GULF AT 27N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... S MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 20N BETWEEN 88W-97W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE DISSIPATING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N61W TO HISPANIOLA AT 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N65W TO 9N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED AND REPLACED WITH 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 70W...AND 5 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO N COLOMBIA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM E SOUTH CAROLINA TO 31N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA AT 27N81W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM 27N76W TO 23N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 74W-76W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO 25N40W TO 23N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N16W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ FORMOSA