000 AXNT20 KNHC 060541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 3N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N20W TO 0N26W TO 0N35W TO 2N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 4N44W TO 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 8W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-2S BETWEEN 20W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN 36W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO THE NE GULF AT 28N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... S MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE DISSIPATING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N63W TO HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W TO JAMAICA AT 18N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED AND REPLACED WITH 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 70W...AND 5 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO N COLOMBIA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM E SOUTH CAROLINA TO 31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM 27N76W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 76W-78W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N31W TO 26N40W TO 23N50W TO 23N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 18N40W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ FORMOSA